
Publications
Some enduring themes in my research:
1. Prediction and Accommodation
Like Lakatos, I see the justification for theory-change in the surplus predictive success of the superseding theory. But what counts as a predictive success needs careful clarification. Contrary to Lakatos’s initial view, whether or not the evidence involved was unknown at the time the new theory was first articulated is – in itself – of no significance on my account. What’s the difference between prediction and accommodation? And why does the difference matter? I developed and defended my answers in a number of papers through my career – both directly and via criticism of rival views.
[1989]:
‘Fresnel, Poisson and the White Spot: The Role of Successful Predictions in the Acceptance of Scientific Theories‘ in D. Gooding, T. Pinch & S. Schaffer (eds.) The Uses of Experiment – Studies of Experimentation in Natural Science. C.U.P., pp. 135-57. ISBN: 9780521337687.
[2001b]:
‘Prediction and the Periodic Table’ Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science, 32, pp. 407-452 (with Eric Scerri).
[2002c]:
‘New evidence for old’ in Gärdenfors, Peter, Jan Wolenski, and Katarzyna Kijania-Placek, (eds) In the scope of logic, methodology and philosophy of science: volume two of the 11th international congress of logic, methodology and philosophy of science, Vol. 316. Springer Science & Business Media, pp. 191-212. ISBN: 9781402009303.
[2006a]:
‘Theory-confirmation and history’. in Colin Cheyne, John Worrall (eds) In Rationality and Reality: Conversations with Alan Musgrave. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. pp. 31-61. ISBN: 9781402042065.






[2011]:
‘Theory confirmation and novel evidence’ in Mayo, D.G. and Spanos, A. (eds), Error and inference: Recent exchanges on experimental reasoning, reliability, and the objectivity and rationality of science. Cambridge University Press, pp. 125-154. ISBN: 9780521880084..
[2011b]:
‘Underdetermination, realism and empirical equivalence’. Synthese, 180, pp. 157- 172.
[2014]:
‘Prediction and accommodation revisited’. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 45, pp. 54-61.
2. Structural Realism
Following Poincaré, I defend a structural version of scientific realism as both incorporating the “no miracles intuition” and being consistent with the facts about fundamental theory-change in science. A very recent paper defends the prima facie surprising view that there is no defensible version of realism stronger than structural realism.
[1989b]:
‘Structural Realism: the Best of Both Worlds?‘, Dialectica, 43./1-2, pp. 99-124.
[1994]:
‘How to Remain (Reasonably) Optimistic: Scientific Realism and the “Luminiferous Ether”‘ in M. Forbes and D. Hull (eds): PSA 1994, Volume 1. Philosophy of Science Association, pp. 334-342. ISBN: 9175863520917586379.
[2007a]:
‘Miracles and models: Why reports of the death of structural realism may be exaggerated’. Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplements, 61, pp. 125-154.
[2011a]:
‘The no miracles intuition and the no miracles argument’ in Dieks, D., Gonzalez, W.J., Hartmann, S., Uebel, T. and Weber, M. (eds) Explanation, prediction, and confirmation. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, pp. 11-21. ISBN: 978661311781.
[2011d]:
‘Miracles and structural realism’. In Landry, E. and Rickles, D. (eds), Structural realism: Structure, object, and causality (Vol. 77). Springer Science & Business Media. pp. 77-95. ISBN: 9789400725782.
[2020]:
‘Structural Realism: The Only Defensible Realist Game in Town?’. in W.J. Gonzalez (ed), New approaches to scientific realism, De Gruyter, pp. 169-205.
3. Evidence in Medicine and Evidence-Based Medicine
It should, of course, go without saying that medicine – in particular theories about which treatments are (or are not) effective for a given condition – should be based on evidence. The interest is all in the details. I examine the detailed views of those in the Evidence-Based Medicine movement and argue that they overstate the importance of Randomised Controlled Trials and underplay the significance of ‘pathophysiologic rationale’ (i.e. knowledge of the underlying biochemistry).
[2002b]:
‘What evidence in evidence-based medicine?’ Philosophy of Science 69, no. S3 (20: pp. 316-330.
[2006]:
‘Why randomize? Evidence and ethics in clinical trials’. Contemporary perspectives in philosophy and methodology of science, pp. 65-82.
[2007]:
‘Why there’s no cause to randomize’. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, pp. 451-488.
[2007b]:
‘Evidence in medicine and evidence‐based medicine’. Philosophy Compass, 2(6), pp. 981-1022.
[2010]:
‘Do we need some large, simple randomized trials in medicine?’. Epsa Philosophical Issues in the Sciences: Launch of the European Philosophy of Science Association, pp. 289-301.
[2010a]:
‘Evidence: philosophy of science meets medicine’. Journal of evaluation in clinical practice, 16(2), pp. 356-362.
[2011c]:
‘Causality in medicine: Getting back to the Hill top’. Preventive Medicine, 53(4-5), pp. 235-238.
[2022]:
‘Philosophy of Science meets Medicine (Again): a Clearer-Sighted View of the Virtues of Blinding and of Tests for Blinding in Clinical Trials’ in W,J, Gonzalez (ed) Current Trends in Philosophy of Science: a Prospective for the Near Future. Synthese Library, pp. 15-43. ISBN: 9783031013140.
A complete list of my publications
ORIGINAL ARTICLES
[1976]:
‘Thomas Young and the “Refutation” of Newtonian Optics: A Case Study in the Interaction of Philosophy of Science and History of Science‘ in C. Howson (ed): Method and Appraisal in the Physical Sciences, Cambridge University Press, pp. 107-179. ISBN: 9780521113083.
[1976a]:
‘Imre Lakatos (1922-1974): Philosopher of Mathematics and Philosopher of Science’ in R. Cohen, P. Feyerabend and M. Wartofsky (eds): Essays in Memory of Imre Lakatos, Reidel, pp. 1-10. ISBN: 9789401014526.
[1978]:
‘The ways in which the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes improves on Popper’s Methodology‘ in G. Radnitzky and G. Andersson (eds): Progress and Rationality in Science. Reidel, pp. 45-70. ISBN: 9027709211
[1978a]:
‘Research Programmes, Empirical Support and the Duhem Problem: Replies to Criticism‘ in G. Radnitzky and G. Andersson (eds): Progress and Rationality in Science. Reidel, pp. 321-338. ISBN: 9027709211
[1978b]:
‘Against too much method‘, Erkenntnis, 13, pp. 279-95.
[1978c]:
‘Is the Empirical Content of a Theory Dependent on its Rivals?’, in I. Niiniluoto and R. Tuomela (eds): The Logic and Epistemology of Scientific Change, Acta Philosophica Fennica, XXX, pp. 175-200. ISBN: 9519505415
[1979]:
‘A Reply to David Bloor‘, The British Journal for the History of Science, 12, 1979, pp. 71-81.
[1980]:
‘Facts and Feyerabend’ in H.P. Duerr (ed): Versuchungen: Aufsätze zur Philosphie Paul Feyerabend, Suhrkamp, pp. 298-320. ISBN: 978-3518110447.
[1982]:
‘The Pressure of Light: The Strange Case of the Vacillating ‘Crucial Experiment’‘, Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science, 13, pp. 133-71.
[1982a]:
‘Scientific Realism and Scientific Change‘, The Philosophical Quarterly, 32, pp. 201-231.
[1982b]:
‘Broken Bootstraps‘, Erkenntnis, 18, pp. 105-130.
[1984]:
‘An Unreal Image‘, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 35, pp. 65-80.
[1985]:
‘Scientific Discovery and Theory-Confirmation‘, in J.Pitt (ed): Change and Progress in Modern Science, Reidel, pp. 301-331. ISBN: 9789400965270.
[1985a]:
‘The Background to the Forefront‘, in P. Asquith and P. Kitcher (eds) PSA 1984, Volume 2. Philosophy of Science Association, pp. 145-157. ISBN: 9175862120917586247
[1985b]:
‘Models versus Mathematics?’ Rendiconti della Accademia Nazionale delle Scienze detta dei XL, Serie V, Vol IX, II, pp. 121-137.
[1986]:
‘The problem of Controlling the Process of Cognition’, in O. Molden (ed.) Autonomie und Kontrolle: Steurungskrisen der Modernen Welt, pp. 315-342. OCLC: 311340383
[1988]:
‘The Value of a Fixed Methodology‘, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 39, pp. 263-75.
[1989]:
‘Fresnel, Poisson and the White Spot: The Role of Successful Predictions in the Acceptance of Scientific Theories‘ in D. Gooding, T. Pinch & S. Schaffer (eds.) The Uses of Experiment – Studies of Experimentation in Natural Science. C.U.P., pp. 135-57. ISBN: 9780521337687.
[1989a]:
‘Why both Popper and Watkins fail to solve the Problem of Induction‘ in F.D’Agostino and I.C. Jarvie (eds.): Freedom and Rationality: Essays in Honor of John Watkins. Reidel, pp.257-96. ISBN: 9780792302643.
[1989b]:
‘Structural Realism: the Best of Both Worlds?‘, Dialectica, 43./1-2, pp. 99-124.
[1990]:
‘Scientific Revolutions and Scientific Rationality: The Case of the “Elderly Hold-Out”‘ in C. Wade Savage (ed.) Scientific Theories. University of Minnesota Press, pp. 319-354. ISBN: 9780816618019.
[1990a]:
‘Rationality, Sociology and the Symmetry Thesis‘, International Studies in the Philosophy of Science, 4, pp. 305-19.
[1991]:
‘Feyerabend and the Facts‘ in Gonzalo Munevar (ed): Beyond Reason. Dordrecht: Kluwer, pp. 329-353. ISBN: 9789401054065.
[1993]:
‘Falsification, Rationality and the Duhem Problem: Grünbaum vs Bayes’ in J. Earman, A.I. Janis, G.J. Massey and N. Rescher (eds): Philosophical Problems of the Internal and External Worlds. Pittsburgh and Konstanz: University of Pittsburgh Press, pp. 329-72. ISBN: 9783879404018.
[1994]:
‘How to Remain (Reasonably) Optimistic: Scientific Realism and the “Luminiferous Ether”‘ in M. Forbes and D. Hull (eds): PSA 1994, Volume 1. Philosophy of Science Association, pp. 334-342. ISBN: 9175863520917586379.
[1995]:
‘Il realismo scientifico e l’etere luminifero: contro la “meta-induzione” pessimistica’ in A. Pagnini (ed.) Realismo/Antirealismo. Aspetti del Dibattito Epistemologico Contemporaneo. La Nuova Italia Editrice. Florence. pp. 167-204. ISBN: 9788822116420.
[1996]:
‘“Revolution in Permanence”: Popper on Theory-Change in Science‘ in Anthony O’Hear (ed): Karl Popper: Philosophy and Problems. Cambridge University Press. pp. 75-102. ISBN: 9780521558150.
[1996b]:
‘Popper’s Legacy’ in H. Sasson and D.Diamond (eds): LSE on Social Science. Routledge. pp. 159-167. ISBN: 9780753007631.
[1998]:
‘Philosophy of Science’ (Signpost entry), Routledge Encyclopaedia of Philosophy.
[1998a]:
‘Imre Lakatos‘, Routledge Encyclopaedia of Philosophy.
[1998b]:
‘Philosophy and Natural Science’ in A.C. Grayling (ed); Philosophy 2: Further Through the Subject. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198751793.
[1998c]:
“Realismo, racionalidad y revoluciones“, Agora, v. 17, n. 2.
[1999]:
‘Why ask “What is Disease”?’ Metascience.
[1999a]:
‘Two cheers for Naturalised Philosophy of Science’, Science and Education, 8(4), pp. 339-361.
[2000a]:
‘Kuhn, Bayes and “Theory-Choice”: How Revolutionary is Kuhn’s Account of Theoretical Change?’ in Robert Nola and Howard Sankey (eds): After Popper, Kuhn and Feyerabend. Kluwer. pp. 125-151. ISBN: 9780792360322.
[2000b]:
‘The Scope, Limits and Distinctiveness of the Method of “Deduction from the Phenomena”: Some Lessons from Newton’s “Demonstrations” in Optics’, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 51, pp. 45-80.
[2000c]:
‘Pragmatic Factors in Theory-Acceptance’ in W. H. Newton-Smith (ed): A Companion to the Philosophy of Science. Blackwell. pp. 349-357. ISBN: 9780631230205.
[2000d]:
‘Science, Philosophy of’, Concise Routledge Encyclopaedia of Philosophy. Routledge.
[2000e]:
‘There is a Thing Called Science’, Metascience.
[2001]:
‘De la Matemática a la Ciencia: Continuidad y discontinudidad en el Pensamiento de Imre Lakatos’, en Gonzalez, W J (ed), La Filosofía de Imre Lakatos: Evaluaciōn de sus propuestas, UNED, Madrid 2001.
[2001a]:
‘Programas de investigaciōn y heurística positiva: Avance respecto de Lakatos’, en Gonzalez, W J (ed), La Filosofía de Imre Lakatos: Evaluaciōn de sus propuestas, UNED, Madrid 2001.
[2001b]:
‘Prediction and the Periodic Table’ Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science, 32, pp. 407-452 (with Eric Scerri).
[2001c]:
‘Defining Disease: Much Ado about Nothing?’ in A.-T. Tymieniecka and E. Agazzi (eds): Analectica Husserliana LXX11, pp.33-55. Dordrecht: Kluwer 2001 (with Jennifer Worrall). ISBN: 9780792346777.
[2001d]:
‘Ramseyfication and Structural Realism’ Appendix IV of E. Zahar: Poincare’s Philosophy: From Conventionalism to Phenomenology, pp. 236-251. Chicago and La Salle, Illinois: Open Court 2001 (with E.G. Zahar)
[2002]:
‘Philosophy of Science: Classic Debates, Standard Problems, Future Prospects’ P. Machamer and M. Silberstein (eds): The Blackwell Guide to the Philosophy of Science, pp.18-36. Blackwell. ISBN: 9780470756614.
[2002a]:
‘”Heuristic Power” and the “Logic of Scientific Discovery”: Why MSRP is less than half the story’ in G.Kampis, L Kvasz and M. Stoeltzner (eds): Appraising Lakatos. Kluwer. ISBN: 978-1402002267.
[2002b]:
‘What evidence in evidence-based medicine?’ Philosophy of Science 69, no. S3 (20: pp. 316-330.
[2002c]:
‘New evidence for old’ in Gärdenfors, Peter, Jan Wolenski, and Katarzyna Kijania-Placek, (eds) In the scope of logic, methodology and philosophy of science: volume two of the 11th international congress of logic, methodology and philosophy of science, Vol. 316. Springer Science & Business Media, pp. 191-212. ISBN: 9781402009303.
[2003]:
‘Normal science and dogmatism, paradigms and progress: Kuhn ‘versus’ Popper and Lakatos’ in Thomas Nickles (ed): Thomas Kuhn. Cambridge University Press, pp. 65-100. ISBN: 9780511060939.
[2003a]:
‘Lakatos in disguise’. Metascience, 12, pp.79-83.
[2004]:
‘Science discredits religion’. in Michael Peterson, and Raymond Vanarragon Contemporary debates in philosophy of religion. Blackwell, pp. 59-72. ISBN: 9786610197460.
[2005]:
‘Evidence-based vs. ‘impressionist’ medicine: how best to implement guidelines’. European heart journal, 26(22), pp. 2474-2475. (with William Fennell).
[2005a]:
‘Prediction and the ‘periodic law’: A rejoinder to Barnes. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 36(4), pp. 817-826.
[2006]:
‘Why randomize? Evidence and ethics in clinical trials’. Contemporary perspectives in philosophy and methodology of science, pp. 65-82.
[2006a]:
‘Theory-confirmation and history’. in Colin Cheyne, John Worrall (eds) In Rationality and Reality: Conversations with Alan Musgrave. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. pp. 31-61. ISBN: 9781402042065.
[2007]:
‘Why there’s no cause to randomize’. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, pp. 451-488.
[2007a]:
‘Miracles and models: Why reports of the death of structural realism may be exaggerated’. Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplements, 61, pp. 125-154.
[2007b]:
‘Evidence in medicine and evidence‐based medicine’. Philosophy Compass, 2(6), pp. 981-1022.
[2008]:
‘Evidence and ethics in medicine’. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 51(3), pp. 418-431.
[2010]:
‘Do we need some large, simple randomized trials in medicine?’. Epsa Philosophical Issues in the Sciences: Launch of the European Philosophy of Science Association, pp. 289-301.
[2010a]:
‘Evidence: philosophy of science meets medicine’. Journal of evaluation in clinical practice, 16(2), pp. 356-362.
[2010b]:
‘For universal rules, against induction’. Philosophy of Science, 77(5), pp. 740-753.
[2011]:
‘Theory confirmation and novel evidence’ in Mayo, D.G. and Spanos, A. (eds), Error and inference: Recent exchanges on experimental reasoning, reliability, and the objectivity and rationality of science. Cambridge University Press, pp. 125-154. ISBN: 9780521880084..
[2011a]:
‘The no miracles intuition and the no miracles argument’ in Dieks, D., Gonzalez, W.J., Hartmann, S., Uebel, T. and Weber, M. (eds) Explanation, prediction, and confirmation. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, pp. 11-21. ISBN: 978661311781.
[2011b]:
‘Underdetermination, realism and empirical equivalence’. Synthese, 180, pp. 157- 172.
[2011c]:
‘Causality in medicine: Getting back to the Hill top’. Preventive Medicine, 53(4-5), pp. 235-238.
[2011d]:
‘Miracles and structural realism’. In Landry, E. and Rickles, D. (eds), Structural realism: Structure, object, and causality (Vol. 77). Springer Science & Business Media. pp. 77-95. ISBN: 9789400725782.
[2013]:
‘Theory-Change in Science’ in Curd, M. and Psillos, S. (eds), The Routledge companion to philosophy of science, pp. 313-323, Routledge. ISBN: 9780415354035.
[2014]:
‘Prediction and accommodation revisited’. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 45, pp. 54-61.
[2020]:
‘Structural Realism: The Only Defensible Realist Game in Town?’. in W.J. Gonzalez (ed), New approaches to scientific realism, De Gruyter, pp. 169-205.
[2022]:
‘Philosophy of Science meets Medicine (Again): a Clearer-Sighted View of the Virtues of Blinding and of Tests for Blinding in Clinical Trials’ in W,J, Gonzalez (ed) Current Trends in Philosophy of Science: a Prospective for the Near Future. Synthese Library, pp. 15-43. ISBN: 9783031013140.
EDITED WORKS
(Editor with Elie Zahar) I. Lakatos: Proofs and Refutations. Cambridge University Press, 1976. ISBN: 9781139171472
(Managing Editor) I. Lakatos: The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes: Philosophical Papers Volume I and Mathematics, Science and Epistemology: Philosophical Papers Volume II, Cambridge University Press, 1978. ISBN: 9780521280310.
(Editor) The Ontology of Science. The International Research Library of Philosophy, Volume 10. Dartmouth Publishing Co. 1994 (includes 35 page editor’s introduction plus a reprint of [1989b]). ISBN: 9781855214941
(Editor with Colin Cheyne) Rationality and Reality: Conversations with Alan Musgrave (Vol. 20). Springer Science & Business Media. 2006. ISBN: 9789048170722. “